Signal

Verified records

Profitable analysts earn a share of the reward pool. Every call here is public, permanent, and open to check.

Who backed what, and how sure they were

Every settled call on the public record. The further from the middle, the surer that backer was.

The whole record

238 settled calls from 11 wallets across 132 markets. Right side called it right, left side called it wrong.

Showing the 100 most recent calls of 238. Hover a dot for the caller; click through to their record.

20%40%60%80%100%RIGHTWRONG
Called it right
119median 59%
Called it wrong
119median 41%

Dot size: stake

  • $0-10
  • $100-500
  • $2,500+

Bigger dot, bigger position. Band only, never the amount.

Sharpest call on the record

0x46e7...6353 called it right while pricing it at just 17% likely.

Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target vs Argentina — YES

Surest of themselves, and wrong

0xc2f1...73e2 backed their side at 83% likely and lost.

Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target vs Argentina — YES

1 call is not on the scale: it settled without a published price, and a guess would be worse than a gap.

Going round each half is time: oldest at the top, newest at the bottom.

Settled markets

Finished markets, newest first. Open one to see who stood where. All 132 on the record.